Baltic energy resilience in the face of Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Baltic Sea Region has seen a structural pivot away from Russian energy sources since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Lithuanian Energy Agency’s study carried out within the framework of Policy Area Energy has shown how the region successfully transitioned from great dependence to energy sovereignty, and why infrastructure defence should be a new frontier.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the European outlook on relations with Russia. As seen in the narratives at the start of the war, the energy sector was often viewed as a hostage of Russia. Why didn’t the lights go out when cheap Russian energy imports collapsed? The answer lies in a rapid, costly, and decisive pivot analyzed in the newly released study “Energy Security Changes in the Baltic Sea Region: 2022–2024”, which highlights the region’s transition from reliance on Russian energy imports to diversified and integrated energy systems, emphasizing infrastructure development, renewable energy adoption, and strategic policy shifts.

Developed by the Lithuanian Energy Agency (LEA) for Policy Area Energy, this analysis adopts the “4 A’s” energy security framework to understand how Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland — the border states of the Baltic Sea Region — navigated through the existential stress and how their energy systems evolved in response to geopolitical pressure. The study looks structurally beyond general statistics, offering a conclusive understanding and overview of the region’s new path towards energy security, decarbonization, and independence. The study takes an innovative approach by incorporating the “4’s” methodology: availability, accessibility, affordability and acceptability.

Availability: The main element of energy security, availability anchors resilience to the material presence of energy resources. The study highlights a “two–speed” architecture of energy development. Finland serves as best practice, and the Baltic States as an example of vRES deployment.
Accessibility: The structure of energy accessibility has also shifted from East to West. This dimension covers energy resource infrastructure from supplier to end-consumer. Considerable investment has been attained for the development infrastructure across 4 states that were analyzed.
Affordability: This dimension has seen one of the most painful trade-offs. The analysis argues that the cost of energy has considerably transformed the market; market variability has become a premium paid for national sovereignty.
Acceptability: This defines how the political and social environment reacts to changes occurring in the energy sector. For the period of 2022–2024, this dimension explains how the social license for energy infrastructure has been rewritten.

Overall, the study offers a clear view of the future within the energy domain. The eastern flank of the Baltic Sea Region has successfully built bridges to the West. However, the task for the coming decade is not only to build carbon-free, efficient energy systems but also to be able to defend them from a full spectrum of threats.

Read the study here.

Baltic energy resilience in the face of Russian invasion of Ukraine

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